Hard times for Saudi Arabia’s policies

5 march 2018 | 07:39
Tatyana Tyukaeva

Tensions within Saudi Arabia and on its borders keep worsening. In the meantime, the young Crown Prince, who holds power over most vital domestic and external policies, continues multiplying mistakes. As was expected, 2017 witnessed the two mutually reinforcing tendencies. First, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, son of the current Saudi King, held on to his course of strengthening his positions in power. Second, tensions kept increasing within the royal family in the face of the upcoming change of the order of succession to the throne.

Zapad wargames and living in uncertainty

4 october 2017 | 13:35
Andrey Sushentsov

The Russian-Belarusian Zapad (West) military exercises, which were held in the latter half of September, have disappointed many people. Comments made in the Western media before the exercises filled the readers with so much concern and apprehension that they thought it would be a second Baltic Offensive. It’s a pity that we have disappointed them.

Sanctions and the new economic reality

7 april 2017 | 09:51
Andrey Sushentsov

By all appearances, anti-Russian sanctions have become a constant of international life. However, a new reality is emerging in Russia’s economic relations with the West. Economic interaction is growing, despite anti-Russian sanctions, and increasingly penetrates strategic fields. This is happening because sanctions affect the interests of many key Western figures who are beginning to feel them as a burden. 

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4

Where will the next international crisis occur?

Today, our analysts closely monitor three areas of tension: Afghanistan, the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and North Korea. After the withdrawal of NATO troops in 2014, Afghanistan is expected to destabilize further, thus impacting the situation in Central Asia and Pakistan. Meanwhile, skirmishes occur each month on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, with Azerbaijan's military budget equaling Armenia’s entire budget. At the same time, North Korea's leadership has proved highly unpredictable and it is unclear how it might choose to respond to U.S.-South Korean military activity on its border.

How do we know this?

Our agency uses a method of system analysis that allows us to assess the international situation in its complexity. Our analysts evaluate the impact of the global political climate and explore the interests and resources of various actors, as well as their goals and tactics. We utilize original sources in 15 languages and empirical observations gathered in our fieldwork. Each day, we follow the latest international events and forecast the further development of the global situation for the next year.

What to expect from the Ukraine crisis?

Despite a compromise deal reached with the Ukrainian government in February 2014, the opposition seized power, which launched the disintegration of the fragile Ukrainian state. The Russian-speaking regions in the country’s southeast — in addition to Crimea — rebelled against the opposition coup. Some demanded Ukraine’s federalization, and others their accession to Russia. In an effort to prevent a 'Russian Spring', the new authorities in Kiev relied on militias and the freshly reformed military. The use of force to suppress popular protests in Eastern Ukraine can lead to Russian interference. 

What steps will Russia take?

It is in Russia’s interests to ensure stability on its western borders. Consequently, Moscow criticizes the destabilizing actions taken by the new authorities in Kiev. Russia would alternatively prefer a coalition government in Ukraine, as well as the country’s federalization and the introduction of Russian as an official state language. At the same time, Russia has no reason to support the status quo if the situation continues to change in its favor, or if this support requires considerable effort.

Will the Syria crisis be resolved in 2015?

Although international pressure has decreased and a dialogue has launched to resolve the crisis, the conflict in Syria will continue. A diplomatic settlement will be hard to achieve as the opposition is in a state of disunity and has no plan of action besides demanding President Bashar Assad’s ouster. Iran and Hezbollah’s assistance to the government — no matter how successful — will not suffice for a victory over the militants in the country’s north and east. The militants’ disunity will make a success even harder to achieve.

What role do external forces play?

External forces will play a significant role in the development of the crisis. The decision to destroy chemical weapons has lowered the chances of an intervention. However, U.S. experts have shown a tendency to whitewash some Al Qaeda groups by contrasting them to 'bad Islamists'. U.S. support for the Islamic front against the government forces and ISIL is further exacerbating the situation.

What future lies in store for Afghanistan after the withdrawal of NATO troops?

Despite the withdrawal of foreign armed forces, the Afghan government is likely to retain control over domestic affairs. Kabul has armed forces and security units under its command boasting over 344,000 servicemen. The figure is larger than the Taliban’s estimated 20,000-25,000 armed militants. We expect the situation in Afghanistan to follow the Iraqi pattern. Therefore, the regime will remain in power and terrorist activities will escalate. Meanwhile, drug trafficking will remain a major threat.

The presidential elections in April 2014 were an additional destabilizing factor. Some segments of the population questioned their legitimacy, which could potentially create the threat of increased separatist sentiment among local elites and weaken the fight against drug trafficking. However, it is most unlikely that the Taliban will return to power. The Afghan army’s fighting capabilities will be ensured thanks to continuing foreign assistance from international donors, guaranteed until 2016.

10 june 2018 | 10:56

Soft power and Russia: interview with Andrey Bezrukov

Russian expert Andrey Bezrukov discussed foreign policy and soft power of Russia with PICREADI intern Alexandro Granata.
31 may 2018 | 22:07

Reasons and consequences of Polish initiative on the placement of the USA military base

On the eve of the NATO summit, to be held in Brussels in July, the Polish Ministry of Defense issued an interesting report, titled “Proposal for a U.S. Permanent Presence in Poland”. Apart  from European and NATO diplomats who are going to meet in Brussels, Warsaw expects to influence the opinions of US Congressmen and Pentagon analysts. Considering that the Congressmen will vote soon for the US military budget, the Poles want their arguments to be well heard.
21 may 2018 | 18:45

Problems and prospects for forming the Russian lobby in the USA

The US media are creating an impression that no other country is more influential than Russia. The union of Russian hackers and trolls has become a real nightmare for America and has led to deep paranoia. However, Russia’s influence in the United States is a myth, and a Russian lobby does not exist. This is borne out at least by the spasmodic attempts of Russian businesspeople to knock on doors in Washington because of the threat of falling under US sanctions.
16 may 2018 | 11:34

Russia and America’s Withdrawal from the Iran Deal

Russia is acting deeply disappointed in public. In response to Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement blaming the United States for “intractable” actions based on “narrow and opportunistic interests.” But Moscow was the least vocal among the dissatisfied—since no Russian vital interests are at stake and some actual benefits emerge. 
23 april 2018 | 22:09

Theresa May’s ‘James Bond’ Moment: From Salisbury to Syria

Over the past month, Theresa May’s government has crafted a narrative that harks back to Great Britain’s greatest contributor to Cold War psychological operations — Ian Fleming. The media coverage of the Skripal case, the alleged chemical attack in Syria, and the military response to it play into London’s hands geopolitically by making Britain internationally relevant at a time when its divorce from the EU demonstrates the exact opposite.
12 april 2018 | 19:18

Strategic communicatioan during Russia-West confrontation

The information space is the main field of confrontation between Russia and the West today. The aim of this confrontation is to win over the public to one’s side. It is important not just to be right, but also to be convincing.
11 april 2018 | 22:16

The basis for Russian-Georgian dialogue

Russian-Georgian relations have been deadlocked despite the nominal growth of trade and tourism from Russia and certain progress in the talks on the cargo transit via Abkhazia. Solutions to the problems that hinder bilateral relations can only be found in a new context based on new ideas. But first Russia and Georgia should decide if they need to improve their relations.
5 march 2018 | 07:39

Hard times for Saudi Arabia’s policies

Tensions within Saudi Arabia and on its borders keep worsening. In the meantime, the young Crown Prince, who holds power over most vital domestic and external policies, continues multiplying mistakes. As was expected, 2017 witnessed the two mutually reinforcing tendencies. First, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, son of the current Saudi King, held on to his course of strengthening his positions in power. Second, tensions kept increasing within the royal family in the face of the upcoming change of the order of succession to the throne.
16 october 2017 | 18:35

Discussion with Andrey Sushentsov in the Center for the National Interest

On October 4, the Center for the National Interest hosted Dr. Andrey Sushentsov for a discussion on the evolving U.S.-Russia relationship.
4 october 2017 | 13:35

Zapad wargames and living in uncertainty

The Russian-Belarusian Zapad (West) military exercises, which were held in the latter half of September, have disappointed many people. Comments made in the Western media before the exercises filled the readers with so much concern and apprehension that they thought it would be a second Baltic Offensive. It’s a pity that we have disappointed them.
11 september 2017 | 16:55

Problems of diplomacy as an exact science

It's hard not to notice that the media environment affects the minds of the foreign policy elites. For many, foreign policy is increasingly becoming not just a professional occupation, but also a pleasant pastime and entertainment. This directly affects the quality of foreign policy assessments and decisions.
28 july 2017 | 14:07

Strategic consequences of US anti-Russia sanctions

The US House of Representatives and Senate overwhelmingly adopted a Russia, Iran and North Korea sanctions bill. It predictably provoked a harsh response from Russian officials. The head of the Federation Council’s Foreign Affairs Committee, Konstantin Kosachev, called for a response that would be painful for Americans. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Washington is “a source of threat.”
Our analysts comment on international issues in leading Russian and international media outlets
 
Get access to our free content
Do not show again