The text was originally published in Russia Beyond the Headlines
Negotiations on the fate of the Russian humanitarian convoy of nearly 300 trucks, which has already been on the Russo-Ukrainian border for nearly a week, are drawing to a close. The sides have agreed on all issues related to customs clearances, and observers have not found any weaponry at all in the trucks.
According to Red Cross spokeswoman Viktoria Zotikova, the only thing that remains is to obtain security guarantees from both sides, and the relevant direct negotiations are currently taking place.
Zotikova declined to comment on the course of negotiations and emerging complexities. However, according to unofficial sources, the problem is on the Ukrainian side, or rather it is in the subdivisions of the National Guard made up of nationalist irregulars, who do not always obey the official authorities.
The Ukrainian military located in the cauldron south of Lugansk controls part of the road from the Izvarino border crossing to the capital of the self-proclaimed Lugansk People's Republic and is fully capable of attacking the convoy (militiamen warned several days ago that the Aydar National Guard battalion had been given the order to attack the convoy).
However, it is possible that this obstacle will be removed in the near future - either by negotiation or force. At the moment, militiamen are actively engaged in liquidating the cauldron and the only reason they have not yet been able to eradicate it is because one of the most combat-ready units in the Ukrainian army, the Lvov 80th airmobile brigade, is located in it alongside the Aydar battalion.
Meanwhile, some experts believe that the successful passage of such a large humanitarian convoy could hand Russia the trump card and, possibly, contribute to the end of the civil war.
Sergei Markedonov, a Russian political scientist and specialist on post-Soviet space, told an RBTH correspondent that “if the convoy reaches its destination, it will turn out that the ‘bloody Putin regime’ is taking more care of the Ukrainian citizens than Kiev. This is already creating discomfort for President Petro Poroshenko.”
From the political point of view, the convoy strengthens Russia's bargaining position. Moscow is now trying to persuade Poroshenko towards the beginning of a negotiation process and the federalization of Ukraine - steps which could not only end the war but give neutral status to Ukraine (in which anti-Russian sentiments in the west will be balanced by the pro-Russian forces in the east).
And Moscow's key argument is that there is a humanitarian catastrophe in the Donbass that the actions of the Ukrainian army (which failed in its execution of a blitzkrieg and has been drawn into positional battles using artillery) is only exacerbating.
However, first Russia must prove to the world that it is a fact that there is a humanitarian catastrophe.
Finally, the successful passage of the humanitarian convoy will play in the favor of those forces within the European Union that advocate a compromise with Russia.
"The European countries are no less interested than Russia in resolving this conflict as soon as possible. However, trapped between Washington and Moscow, they are in an extremely difficult political position and, especially after the incident with the Malaysian Boeing, are in need of additional arguments," Timofei Bordachev, director of the Center for Comprehensive International and European Studies at the Higher School of Economics, told RBTH.
My observations in Washington prove that this is not an immediate objective for the US yet. However, it does not mean, that the Americans will refrain from an opportunity to speed up the fall of the Russian regime if the internal problems cause a social upheaval. Having met with the White House, National Security Council and Pentagon officials, as well as experts on Russia in Washington, I may conclude that the US has certain difficulties formulating a single consistent policy towards Moscow and is, therefore, incapable of conspiring against it.
The US media are creating an impression that no other country is more influential than Russia. The union of Russian hackers and trolls has become a real nightmare for America and has led to deep paranoia. However, Russia’s influence in the United States is a myth, and a Russian lobby does not exist. This is borne out at least by the spasmodic attempts of Russian businesspeople to knock on doors in Washington because of the threat of falling under US sanctions.
Summit of the Americas held on April 10–11 in Panama not only illustrated the general movement of Latin American countries towards abandoning the system of inequitable relations with the US but also outlined new trends carrying a potential threat for the regional interests of Russia
The fact that there is a chance of talks being held at all can be considered a major success. Poroshenko previously refused to send delegates to Minsk to talk to the representatives of the unrecognized Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics (DPR and LPR) in eastern Ukraine, with Russia and the OSCE acting as mediators. He preferred to hold negotiations in Geneva with Russia, using the United States and the European Union as mediators.
The Foreign Policy Analysis Group is a strategic intelligence and research organization based in Moscow, Russia. We analize and advise on foreign policy and international affairs since 2014 with an aim to produce the most accurate analysis of current affairs in international relations from non-Western perspective.
To top