The major Russian foreign policy news last week included new developments for anti-Russian sanctions, talks on settling the Syrian crisis, and publication of investigative reports as to the reasons behind the crash of Flight MH17 in Ukraine.
The major Russian foreign policy news last week included new developments for anti-Russian sanctions, talks on settling the Syrian crisis, and publication of investigative reports as to the reasons behind the crash of Flight MH17 in Ukraine.
Erosion of anti-Russian sanctions regime in the EU
Last week, debates resumed on the long-term effects of anti-Russian economic sanctions. On Oct. 13, in response to a question posed by a representative of Siemens at an investment forum in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin pointed out that German companies will have limited possibilities to participate in major infrastructure projects in Russia (especially work on the new Moscow-Kazan railroad) as the current sanctions make it impossible to obtain credit resources.
“If participants of such projects will be limited in their access to European funding, then we will not have many options. And under such circumstances, the offers of our Chinese partners to participate in the funding can become crucial,” said Mr. Putin.
A few days before this, for the first time since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, some sanctions against Russia were lifted. On Oct. 9, the EU excluded rocket fuel from the list of prohibited goods in its trading with Russia. These substances are required to power Russian rocket engines that deliver European satellites for various EU space programs.
This was a tentative step towards the normalization of economic relations, designed to test the response of various forces within Europe and in the United States. It was especially significant that on Oct. 8, Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the European Commission, publically stated that the EU needed to normalize relations with Russia:
“We must make efforts towards a practical relationship with Russia. It is not easy, but that must be the case, we cannot go on like this,” he said at an event in the southern German city of Passau.
He added:
“We cannot have our relations with Russia be dictated by Washington.”
Could Russia and the West cooperate in the fight against ISIS?
Russia’s military campaign against ISIS has strengthened Moscow’s influence with the Syrian government. Russia is planning to use this influence to start a dialogue between the Syrian authorities and opposition groups.
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70 years ago, on April 25, 1945, 50 nations opened the San-Francisco Conference that eventually resulted in the establishment of the UN. The Organization became the keystone of the international security system, while its basic principles, such as supremacy of international law, sovereign equality of states and joint approach to the settlement of international problems, remain the unchanged benchmarks of Russian foreign policy throughout decades.
Certainly, the two are not on the same page in Syria and some other Middle Eastern matters; they have historically adversarial relations in the South Caucasus; and they have a conflicting modern record of Turkish support for Islamist and nationalist movements in the North Caucasus. But be it bilateral trade relations or pipeline geopolitics, instead of keeping in line with its NATO allies Turkey is more savvy in following its own national interests than many Western diplomats and analysts would like to think.
Many opponents of Russia are already regarding this as his surrender of the southeast of Ukraine; however in reality, this is just one more step towards the realization of Russian interests in Ukraine. The goal is to minimize potential damage.
U.S. and NATO will retain their influence on Kabul, due to the large amounts of financial aid on which the national budget depends, but the real question is: How hard will the new president work on finding an alternative to this source of financing? In Afghan society, there is a very strong anti-American sentiment, and therefore, there is a demand for closer ties with other countries, and even support for their confrontations with the United States.
The Foreign Policy Analysis Group is a strategic intelligence and research organization based in Moscow, Russia. We analize and advise on foreign policy and international affairs since 2014 with an aim to produce the most accurate analysis of current affairs in international relations from non-Western perspective.
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