Discussion of Russia’s North Caucasus, which dominated the press in the run-up to the Sochi Games, has been replaced by the conflict in Ukraine, but the region should not be ignored.
During the two wars Russia fought in Chechnya in the 1990s, the militants’ primary goal was to create a state separate from Russia. In the 2000s, however, the militant groups changed character and took on more explicitly religious goals and an ideology that shared more with the militant Islam of groups such as Al-Qaeda.
Negotiations on the fate of the Russian humanitarian convoy of nearly 300 trucks, which has already been on the Russo-Ukrainian border for nearly a week, are drawing to a close. The sides have agreed on all issues related to customs clearances, and observers have not found any weaponry at all in the trucks.
One issue here cannot be ignored. The new round of violence in Nagorno-Karabakh is occurring against a background of reformatting the territory of the former Soviet Union. This process includes the changing of the status of Crimea and the civil strife in southeastern Ukraine, all with unpredictable consequences.
Western governments locked up in short electoral cycles are bound to continue same policies towards Russia.
In the current context of perpetual Washington-Moscow browbeating, this narrative finds Moscow supporters in the Middle East and elsewhere. However, Russians have enough to worry about for themselves as IS not only has significantly influenced regional geopolitics, but has served asinspiration for extremist sympathizers in other parts of the world, breathing new life into their activities, such as for the Caucasus Emirate (CE) operating in the Russian North Caucasus.
Theoretically, there is a reason to monitor the situation - Russia intends to strengthen its ties with the Iraqi government, especially with respect to military weapons.
The beginning of Ukranian peace talks is an important step for all sides. Kremlin's stand should also be taken into account given how strongly Russia and Ukraine are connected.
It can be fairly assumed that NATO’s relations with Georgia is a ‘win-win’ game of making the country a part of its global presence system and gaining much at a low price.
The Foreign Policy Analysis Group is a strategic intelligence and research organization based in Moscow, Russia. We analize and advise on foreign policy and international affairs since 2014 with an aim to produce the most accurate analysis of current affairs in international relations from non-Western perspective.
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